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Wetter and warmer than average across Australia

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Spring is just weeks away, and the early signs are that it’s going to be a literal damp squib weather-wise. A collection of climate drivers are teaming up to bring rain, and quite a bit of it, to eastern states. Flooding is a genuine risk. More rain is excellent news for farmers; flooding is not. It’s also likely to be warmer than average in Australia’s north and southeast.

“For September to November 2021, we can expect a negative Indian Ocean Dipole to continue during spring bringing above-average rainfall for the eastern half of Australia,” stated the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) in its latest climate outlook.

That soggy spring was also more likely because of the increased chance of La Nina making a comeback. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and La Nina, the shorthand term for the neutral phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are measures of sea surface temperatures aided by powerful trade winds.

The two brood in the oceans on either side of Australia, and when they crank into action, it can have a powerful effect on the continent’s climate for months on end.

A negative IOD, which is currently in place in the Indian Ocean, generally aids in creating rain over southern and eastern Australia. La Nina sees warmer seas pushed towards Australia’s east which brings more clouds and adds to the rainfall.

It hasn’t kicked in yet, but several long-range forecasts suggest that La Nina will. Even if the ENSO doesn’t entirely slip into neutral, it could still be powerful enough to bring more moisture to land.

Not everywhere will see more rain, though. The BOM has stated that Western Australia, despite being lapped by the Indian Ocean where the IOD is located, is looking at having a dry spring – as is western Tasmania.

Spring days are warmer than average in the north of the country and the far southeast, so cities such as Melbourne, Hobart, Darwin, and Cairns.

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Tristan McCue is a 26-year-old junior programmer who enjoys reading, binge-watching boxed sets, and appearing in the background on TV. He is smart and friendly, but can also be very evil and a bit lazy.He is an Australian Christian. He has a post-graduate degree in computing.
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